Not enough people have died. If they die, they will be afraid.
(Boccaccio, The Decameron)
Do you know when Boccaccio’s Decameron was written?
When the plague hit Florence in 1348, ten young men and women took refuge in a villa. They feasted all day long, each telling a story a day, a hundred stories in ten days.
In 1348, the Black Death was sweeping across Europe, and Europe’s population was cut in half.
As history enters a new era, the Covid-19 epidemic has reached a terrible milestone.
More than 100 million cases of COVID-19 have been confirmed worldwide.
Dr. Zhang Wenhong’s analysis of the next trend of the epidemic is —
Novel coronavirus becomes “resident virus”.
What is a “resident virus”?
In fact, there are many epidemics worse than the new crown in history. Take the most well-known “plague” as an example. Each of the three pandemics lasted more than a hundred years.
But from today’s point of view, it’s also possible to coexist with humans.
China’s infectious diseases are classified into Class A, Class B and Class C.
Plague is at the top of the A list, followed by cholera.
For every Class A infectious disease, hundreds of millions of lives are exchanged for the right to be listed.
A hundred years ago, there was nothing humans could do about it, but after a hundred years of epidemics, the plague would disappear for a while, and for cruel reasons.
It’s not that humans have found a way to deal with it, it’s that the host of the virus is dead.
At present, CoviD-19 virus is classified as “class B” in China.
But it is in accordance with the A class of prevention and control standards for prevention and control, the city within 2 hours, 2 hours of rural telephone reporting epidemic prevention station.
In the future, there’s a good chance —
Novel coronavirus would coexist with humans for as long as influenza does, with everyone at risk for infection, but with a lower mortality rate than influenza.
Compared with influenza, the new corona can spread faster and more widely, and it can even mutate.
But let’s not forget that flu has a higher death rate.
In 2013, an article titled “Middle-aged Beijing Under the Flu” went viral on the Internet. Perhaps the author didn’t expect the 26,000-word article to attract such a big response.
Because the author opened the window to enjoy the cool after taking a bath, the father-in-law caught the flu, from illness to the doctor to the ICU, a “little flu” almost let the family can not survive.
This article also reveals the terrible truth about “flu” —
How can you “go broke” with the flu and not be treated?
Indeed, at the beginning, my family thought it was just a common cold that could be cured with a few dollars.
But the disease progressed so fast that the elderly’s immune system alone could not hold off the onslaught.
From the hospital back home, the family was too optimistic about the virus.
How come hospitals can’t even treat colds?
It was not until he arrived at the respiratory department of Beijing Chaoyang Hospital that he was told he needed oxygen in addition to antiviral medication because the virus had invaded the lungs and the patient was having difficulty breathing.
The family including the patient is still very optimistic, think how can the third grade hospital even a small cold can not cure?
Until doctors told him he was infected with an unknown virus, just a few days later, he became “white lungs”.
Vancomycin, the most powerful antibiotic, was given, but the situation continued to worsen.
As a last resort, “artificial lungs” were used.
Many people only learned about the artificial lung machine during last year’s outbreak, but many patients and family members who have been through the ICU do.
ECMO costs 20,000 yuan to start up, and that doesn’t include the ongoing treatment costs.
ECMO itself does not destroy lung viruses and bacteria.
The doctor’s plan is to fight the disease with a scorched earth policy.
For example, when a locust sweeps over a farmland, nothing grows, but when the grass is gone, the locusts die.
Now the virus in the lungs is like locusts, and the lung body is like farmland. The treatment strategy is to let the virus attack, and when the lungs are full, the virus will die, which is called “self-limiting” in medicine.
Once the virus dies, ECMO keeps the patient alive, and the lungs slowly recover, gradually being able to supply oxygen to other organs.
By this time, his father-in-law had been afflicted by the virus to the last gasp of strength.
The cost of the home also soon arrived at the “ceiling”, people to middle age, there are a lot of things have to.
With the artificial lung, the condition is still no better.
Finally, the hospital always said:
“We’re at 4,000 RPM and his oxygen level is still going down.
His lungs are working to increase his oxygen supply, so you’ll see his breathing increase.
We don’t want this to happen. He already has fluid in his chest, which is pressing on other organs and affecting his heart function.
We smoked twice, but it was getting worse.”
Patients and families are losing the war on the flu.
This article is a good piece of science about how serious flu can be.
Viruses are far more complex than we thought.
Flu can be very harmful. Flu is not a cold, but between it and the common cold is a severe pneumonia, which is one of the causes of death.
According to the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, influenza causes 290,000 to 650,000 respiratory tract related deaths worldwide each year.
The data model estimated an average of 88,000 influenza-related respiratory deaths in China.
The virus infected 29 million people in the United States in the first quarter and killed 14,000.
Another reason why influenza is not taken seriously is that influenza viruses mutate so frequently. People themselves are the hosts of influenza viruses, and influenza viruses circulate in the human body with seasonal changes in the global population, gradually disappear as the pandemic season ends, and then begin to repeat the following year.
As a result, human beings cannot control the flu virus. They get used to the flu and become “Buddha-like” towards it.
There is a vaccine for flu, but it is impossible to prevent. The average person can be infected with the flu, and it can be deadly to those with weakened immune systems.
Novel coronavirus and influenza virus are two very different viruses.
The mechanism of cell invasion, genome size and replication pattern are completely different.
It is unlikely that the new crest will become a flu virus, but it could come along with the season and invade our lives like the flu.
Recently, new strains of E484K with variants from South Africa and Brazil have hit the headlines.
This may be the biggest challenge to the development of new crown vaccines worldwide.
Not only was it more transmissible and even immune to vaccines currently on the market, it was also found to be more prevalent among adolescents with no health problems.
The following summary is translated by netizens using the discourse system of online games:
This is 2.0!
Some netizen even joked that even the virus is trying to improve itself in the “inside roll”.
One of the greatest characteristics of novel coronavirus is that it is constantly mutating and spreading.
This mutation in the new South African strain is just that, a suspected immune escape.
Novel coronavirus also survives, and they have their own survival strategies.
When you start out in the population, you don’t have any pre-existing immunity in your body, so immunity is like a big net to catch these viruses.
But there will always be fish that slip through the net, and those missing viruses will mutate.
The variation falls into two categories:
One is the “self-reinforcing” mutation, which increases transmission.
This was the case with the mutated virus found in Britain.
This mutation is nothing to be alarmed about, and the vaccines available can deal with it.
The second, scarier type of mutation is the one that protects against host immunity.
The mutation is similar to antibiotic resistance, in which the immune system is unable to kill the virus in the short term in immunocompromised or persistent patients.
The virus escapes, mutates to defend itself against the immune system, and then spreads.
If the epidemic does not end for a long time, then these two mutations are inevitable.
But a second, immune-resistant mutation may have arrived sooner than expected.
Based on the structural analysis, the new strain in South Africa is likely to cause neutralizing antibodies to fail, and the mutation causes neutralizing antibodies of a large class of GERMLINE VH3-53 to fail.
So far, several vaccine companies have announced results that are effective against the British strain, keeping mum about the South African strain.
This is a worst-case scenario, but one that is likely if the virus spreads widely and for a long period of time.
Viruses also follow the law of nature, “the law of the jungle, survival of the fittest.”
So they’re constantly evolving, they’re constantly adapting.
“Selective pressure” is a concept in evolutionary ecology, which refers to the pressure exerted by the external environment on the evolution of species. Different pressures lead to different directions of evolution.
In the struggle for survival, some individuals survive and pass the secret of survival on to the next generation through their genes.
At the time of penicillin, bacteria were generally resistant.
Today, in the era of antibiotics, a few bacteria have survived and become mainstream.
The same is true of novel coronavirus, a new, more infectious strain that is slowly being developed.
If the window for eradicating the new crown is missed, the virus will evolve and become more complex to deal with.
Until the –
The virus cannot be completely eliminated by immunization, but in the vaccinated population, the virus gradually weakens and becomes mild.
Eventually, a degree of compromise was reached between humans and the virus, and the new crest became a flu-like existence.
For this outcome, human beings should be fully prepared, new Crown is not terrible, and effective measures are the only long-term way.